When the electorate removed him from his position as Prime Minister within months of prevailing in the Second World War, Winston Churchill famously declared “Democracy is the worst form of government – except for all the others that have been tried”. Now, in another very public defenestration, the democratic process has seen Boris Johnston be rejected by his own party, with consequences that will embroil us here in Northern Ireland for months if not years to come, but with a very real risk that we will be subjected to democracy rather than be participants in it.
Since springtime, intense commentaries around the twin challenges of the NI Protocol and failure to establish an Assembly and Executive have dominated the agenda, right across business, politics and civic society. However, recent events at Westminster have hijacked the media spotlight and consumed all of the political oxygen, with the effect that these massive challenges have shuddered to a halt and effectively been put on hold until a new Prime Minister is chosen, a new administration is formed, and the UK government can resume its functions, including negotiations with the EU and urging our parties back the Executive.
In that vacuum, we have a responsibility to understand the views of candidates who are vying to become Prime Minister; to interrogate them on their attitude to the NI Protocol Bill that is progressing through Parliament; to know what they are trying to achieve, and how they intend to go about it. This issue is the keystone which keeps the whole arch of policies and relations in place, both domestically and internationally. It is central to the UK’s relationship with the EU and closely linked to that with the US; it is of fundamental importance to relations between these islands; and it is the determining issue that will see whether the democratic choices made in May will prevail, or whether we will subjected to yet more democracy by having another Assembly election foisted upon us.
Paradoxically, whilst the perspective of the successful candidate on this single issue may well be one of their most important policy positions, there is a strong possibility that it will not be the defining issue in the process of their election. Early exchanges suggest that candidates see tax policy as the issue on which to make their best bids to win over the various stages of their democratic contest – the support of sufficient nominators; the votes of their MPs to get into the final run off; then appealing to the majority of the party in the country. It’s hard to see how the operation of the Northern Ireland Protocol and its associated impact on the devolved administration at Stormont will be judged relevant in appealing to those electorates - yet that is the task we must set ourselves and the goal we must pursue.
Northern Ireland businesses cannot simply sit back and wait for the process to play out, then deal with whatever consequences it throws up. Instead, we must engage with the candidates to ensure they fully understand the issues and the implications of their decisions and commitments.
All of the local parties have acknowledged problems with the operation of the Protocol that need to be addressed, and whilst that common ground on which they stand may be small, it is still worthy of note as we seek to engage the aspiring candidates during the course of their contest. We will highlight the issues that they must understand; share the experiences of businesses to date; focus on the risks and rewards of various approaches; and aim to secure crystal clear commitments that mean we know exactly how the next Prime Minister will act in respect of that keystone in our affairs.
Successful resolution of this issue is closely linked to resumption of stable government at Stormont, so FSB will be inviting candidates to visit Northern Ireland during their campaigns to meet with businesses and hear their experiences at first hand so that they can appreciate the remarkably delicate balance they need to achieve whilst cutting this Gordian knot. That will be the way that we ensure business participates in this particular democratic exercise.