Small businesses hope that “night is darkest before the dawn” as confidence plunges to eight-year low on eve of election

Press Releases 30 Dec 2019

FSB publishes the latest findings from its Small Business Index (SBI).

  • Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) Small Business Index (SBI) measure hit lowest point since last recession   
  • Profitability and export expectations tumbled to five-year low
  • Number of small firms expecting to increase headcounts fell as concerns about labour costs rise   

The UK’s small business community headed into the general election gripped by pessimism as uncertainty, concerns about the future direction of global trade and rising employment costs continue to weigh on sentiment, according to FSB’s latest SBI.  

The confidence measure stands at -21.6 in Q4. This marks an unprecedented sixth straight negative reading, and the lowest quarterly figure since the same period in 2011 when the UK was mid-way through a recession.         

Close to half (46%) of small firms expect their performance to worsen over the coming three months. Fewer than a quarter (24%) expect their performance to improve.

Pessimism is particularly pronounced in certain sectors, not least retail where two thirds (66%) of small firms expect prospects to worsen next quarter. The share of small businesses citing consumer demand as a barrier to growth (36%) is at a three-year high.   

Other frequently cited barriers to growth include labour costs: one in four (24%) cite them as an impediment to growth, up three percentage points compared to this time last year. Just one in ten (11%) small firms are planning to increase headcounts next quarter. The figure is at a five-year low.   

The domestic economy continues to be regarded as the number one barrier to expansion among small firms, flagged by 64% of those surveyed, up from 58% during the same period in 2018.     

The last three months have seen margins squeezed within small businesses. The proportion reporting a decrease in profits (42%) has surged to a five-year high, while the share reporting an increase (27%) is at a five-year low.

Optimism among exporters is in short supply. Fewer than one in four (23%) expect international sales to increase next quarter, while a third (32%) expect them to drop – the figures are at a five-year low and high respectively.   

Research published by FSB last week highlights the importance of the new government’s commitments concerning broadband, employment costs and business rates to small businesses.

FSB Director of External Affairs and Advocacy Craig Beaumont said: “The small business community has been stifled by uncertainty for more than three years. This quarter, the added uncertainty that accompanies a general election made it even harder for small firms to plan, hire and increase profits.  

“They say that the night is darkest before the dawn, and small firms will be hoping that the old adage holds true. The incoming government has made some very positive commitments to the small business community – particularly where connectivity, employment costs, business rates and late payments are concerned – it now needs to deliver.

“The fact that we’re seeing hiring intentions drop-off so dramatically is a real concern. The need for this government to deliver on its promise to cut the jobs tax by increasing the Employment Allowance is a very urgent one.

“The small business community should be kept front and centre when ironing out our future relationships with the EU and other countries across the globe. We must secure a pro-business future trading arrangement with the EU, one that protects the three t’s: trade, talent and transition.”    


Notes to Editors
1) FSB surveyed 1,029 small businesses for the Q4 2019 Small Business Index between 26 November and 9 December 2019. The survey covers a range of economic indicators including: small business confidence, employment and wages, exports, productivity, spare capacity, finance and investment. The SBI is conducted by independent research company Verve. The headline SBI confidence figures are based on a weighted index, with the share of firms reporting ‘much improved’ or ‘much worse’ confidence allocated double weighting.

Media contact

Matt Dickinson

Matt Dickinson

Deputy Head of Media & Communications

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07525 801773

About FSB

As the UK’s largest business support group, FSB is the voice of the UK’s small businesses and the self-employed. Established over 40 years ago to help its members succeed in business, FSB is a non-profit making and non-party political organisation that’s led by its members, for its members. As the UK’s leading business campaigner, FSB is focused on delivering change which supports smaller businesses to grow and succeed.

FSB offers members a wide range of vital business services, including access to finance, business banking, legal advice and support along with a powerful voice in Government. Each year FSB also runs the UK’s Celebrating Small Business Awards. More information is available at You can follow us on twitter @fsb_policy and on Instagram @fsb_uk.